13 Comments
User's avatar
Nigel Southway's avatar

I am interested about where you get your numbers as you paint a very winning picture about W&S and batteries and EVs…. but I see significant contradictions from numbers by others.

Based on what I have seen we should stay with the cleanest available form of fossil fuels to generate electricity and skip the unreliable W&S and go straight to Nuclear in the long run.

EVs are not going to happen once they have to stand on their own without subsidies and the supply chains are prohibitive from an environmental perspective even if we could scale up to meet the capacity needed.

We will still need fossil fuels for many years to come and we just need to make them as clean as practical in concert with costs that can be afforded.

Also its becoming clear that CO2 may not be the climate change driver and so all our NetZero efforts may be unnecessary, technologically unattainable, economically unviable and extremely foolish.

Expand full comment
Sam Matey's avatar

Based on the data I've seen, I'm afraid that no part of your very civil and polite comment is accurate. Wind and solar are effectively no longer unreliable thanks to grid-scale battery technology (plus other energy storage methods like pumped hydro). EVs have already happened: they're set to make up 25% of new cars sold this year, and already have passed 50% in China. (And incidentally, every major carmaker benefits from implicit or explicit government subsidies, EV or fossil fuel). Much less mining is needed for renewables & EVs than for fossil fuels. Many countries are already generating over 100% of their electricity needs from renewables. Nuclear is clean and safe, but impractically expensive and slow to build compared to renewables, which are the fastest-growing source of electricity-generating capacity in history. And CO2 is pretty clearly the primary climate change driver, with other greenhouse gases like methane also playing a big role and other factors like the masking effect of aerosols introducing complications. For more stats, check out the Rocky Mountain Institute site or Substack (here's one great article https://electrotechrevolution.substack.com/p/rewiring-the-energy-debate), leading data scientist Dr. Hannah Ritchie's work (here's her article on mining hannahritchie.substack.com/p/mining-low-carbon-vs-fossil) and the Ember energy think tank (https://ember-energy.org/) - good places to start!

Expand full comment
Nigel Southway's avatar

Sam… thank you for providing some information that I will study and get back with more comments. But Its very clear from my reading that some of your comments border on “honorable wishful thinking” rather than solid data and calculations… but I will look at what you have.

Expand full comment
Tuco's Child's avatar

I wish it was true, but there is no such thing as renewables.

Please see the First Law of Thermodynamics.

We can only be more efficient.

Solar and wind are highly inefficient and intermittent.

Expand full comment
Nigel Southway's avatar

Yes.. the only application would be for remote off grid applications with some FF form of backup

Expand full comment
Tuco's Child's avatar

I have a remote shack in the Mojave that would be perfect for panels and some batteries. Gavin, please help and send me some taxpayers money 💰

Expand full comment
Nigel Southway's avatar

Ha ha... Better not keep saying bad things about the technology .....walls have ears

Expand full comment
Sam Matey's avatar

I appreciate your constructive engagement! Would that all comments could be so civil. I do think that I am being careful to be describing already-extant facts, not wishful thinking. The reality here is fast-moving, and it's understandable that many (especially in North America, where the transition has been slowed by political dramas) aren't up on the latest statistics. Here's another source for the EV numbers: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/ev-hybrid-sales-outlook-iea . South Australia is one of many examples of developed-world jurisdictions running on a grid with lots of big batteries reducing the problem of renewables intermittency with each one built, and they're nearing 100% renewables by 2027: https://reneweconomy.com.au/another-big-battery-joins-the-grid-in-south-australia-as-state-heads-towards-100-pct-net-renewables/ . In the USA, fossil fuels accounted for less than 5% of all new electricity-generating capacity built in 2024 as renewables continue their rise! https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-almost-all-new-us-power-plants-are-carbon-free

Expand full comment
Nigel Southway's avatar

Sam I reviewed the material you sent, but I remain unconvinced on a bunch of levels…

First its clear that NetZero is looking to be downgraded from an emergency to a nice to do some of it sometime into the far future. The climate change emergency is being debunked by many scientists at least in terms of there being no adverse impact drivers that cannot be managed with adaption rather than very damaging mitigation from a prosperity standpoint.

Its clear that as an energy source what you call electrotech is a long term pipedream that may happen but we should place no timeline as its systemic unreliability even with batteries places its total cost benefit way outside of what we can afford to do and still have reliable low cost energy to drive an industrial society.

The supply chain for electrotech is far more demanding than conventional already capitalized capabilities and its clear that if we spent the same funds and effort on nuclear we would not even be having this conversation. The electrotech mines and supply chains will require significant increasing use of fossil fuels so by the time we have the product its carbon footprint will be a huge joke….. as are EVs.

WATCH: Gerard Holland lays out the staggering cost of renewable energy at ARC Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRhNOv1Uo4M&t=4s

The materials to build reliable and long life cycle nuclear is far less than electrotech and the supply chains are far less complex and already established and localized and scaling up far less than starting from almost nowhere with electrotech.

Even EVs are far more supply chain complex than the gas alternatives.

Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion inescapable mineral realities

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrNdJAZ75h4&t=2s

Its clear that every nation that is moving too fast toward electrotech is getting badly hurt with energy cost increases and reliability crashes…. Spain!

Be aware for every one of your pro electrotech sites on Substack there are an equal number of NoWay electrotech sites with great hard data...

Even the so called rich western nations cannot afford to do this stuff let alone the emerging economies…. They will use what is under their feet the most ….. and that’s coal or gas or they will continue to die from wood smoke!.

I have spent my life supporting product designs and introduction as a manufacturing engineer across many parts of the world and this one (eletrotech) should stay in the design office and lab until its commercially ready.. which it aint!

I go back to what I said in my first comment… Based on what I have seen we should stay with the cleanest available form of fossil fuels to generate electricity and skip the unreliable W&S and go straight to Nuclear in the long run.

I am a climate realist and see so much wrong with NetZero that is unnecessary, technologically unattainable, economically unviable and extremely foolish.

Here are my information sources that make a lot of sense to me..

Climate links

Why there is no 'climate crisis'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmdBbs3O1g4&t=1171s

THERE IS NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY!!! - by Nigel Southway

https://nigelsouthway.substack.com/p/there-is-no-climate-emergency

Andrew Dessler vs Steven Koonin: Climate Change Debate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGNSGyhK_z0

John Christy: Climate Change is Not a Crisis | Tom Nelson Pod #260

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwYVyU_q9Uo&t=242s

Climate Change: What Do Scientists Say? | 5 Minute Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwqIy8Ikv-c

Why renewables can’t save the planet | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxDanubia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w&t=4s

Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion inescapable mineral realities

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrNdJAZ75h4&t=2s

Wildfires | CO2 Coalition Climate Chronicles #ClimateChronicles #NoClimateCrisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCC5mBCqNXY&t=230s

WATCH: Gerard Holland lays out the staggering cost of renewable energy at ARC Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRhNOv1Uo4M&t=4s

Australia’s net zero scheme won’t work

http://www.nigelsouthway.org/storage/01JXSMEHD3DMQZXM1BF2KM7SN3.pdf

The Climate Change Stand-off. - by Nigel Southway

https://nigelsouthway.substack.com/p/the-climate-change-stand-off

Debunking 3 Major Climate Change Lies

Expand full comment
Sam Matey's avatar

Again...just none of your comment is true. None of it. I appreciate your efforts to engage, but I don't think this is going anywhere productive. Whatever you choose to believe, solar, wind, and batteries (and likely soon geothermal and more!) will continue growing at the fastest rate of any electricity-generating technology in history, providing overwhelming majorities of all new capacity coming online worldwide, and providing cheap, clean energy in the Global South!

Expand full comment
Sam Matey's avatar

All of what I just wrote is not a pipedream, but a description of our current year-2025 reality. It's already the case. Electrotech *is* a conventional already-capitalized capability!

Expand full comment
Nigel Southway's avatar

I agree we are divided even on facts… I will not bother you more but will leave you with a few things..

WATCH: Gerard Holland lays out the staggering cost of renewable energy at ARC Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRhNOv1Uo4M&t=4s

Getting the numbers from his presentation and reviewing is something you should do..

Trump is right to halt W&S and push nuclear based on this… in Canada we are pushing Nuclear far more and already have a solid installed base in my province that has most of the industry.

Here is more…

An Inconvenient Truth: Our climate policies cant save the environment. So what will? | Bjorn Lomborg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN_ARfPY9rY&t=12s

About 7 minutes in Bjorn shows the plot of the energy cost across nations who have adopted W&S and its very clear we should avoid that journey.

Expand full comment
Tuco's Child's avatar

The Law's of Physics and Thermodynamics still hold:

https://tucoschild.substack.com/p/renewable-energy-does-not-exist

Expand full comment